Actual result
D+10.7
Final polls said
D+11.5
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+11.6 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rivercity Polling | D+4.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Braun Research | D+26.5 | 15.8 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 588 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Rivercity Polling | 2010-10-21 | 239 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Braun Research | 2010-10-18 | 504 | D+26.5 | 16 |
| Braun Research | 2010-09-20 | 500 | D+22.8 | 12 |