Actual result
D+16.7
Final polls said
D+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | D+17.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Glengariff Group | D+19.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+14.3 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rossman Group | R+4.0 | 20.7 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Rossman Group | 2010-10-04 | 300 | R+4.0 | 21 |
| Glengariff Group | 2010-09-15 | 400 | D+19.0 | 2 |