VotePredictor
past elections

Michigan House

Patrick A. Miles (D) vs Justin Amash (R)

Actual result
R+22.2
Final polls said
R+14.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.8
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Public Opinion StrategiesR+19.03.2
2VotePredictorR+12.89.4
3EPIC-MRAR+9.013.2

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Public Opinion Strategies2010-10-19400R+19.03
EPIC-MRA2010-10-18400R+9.013