Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.9 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+16.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-24 | 558 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+16.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-13 | 584 | D+5.0 | 0 |