Actual result
R+11.6
Final polls said
R+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+10.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.9 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+7.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+6.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | PSB Research | R+5.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-29 | 434 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-21 | 818 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-11 | 407 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-09 | 339 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-09-26 | 238 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2010-09-24 | 400 | R+10.0 | 2 |