Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
R+3.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.2 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+10.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-29 | 451 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-21 | 917 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-09 | 363 | D+7.0 | 9 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-06 | 407 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-09-26 | 228 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2010-09-24 | 400 | R+2.0 | 0 |