Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
R+2.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | R+3.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+5.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | D+1.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-24 | 442 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2010-10-23 | 292 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2010-10-20 | 600 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-09-26 | 400 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2010-09-25 | 334 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2010-09-22 | 401 | D+8.0 | 11 |