Actual result
D+11.0
Final polls said
D+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | National Research | D+1.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-24 | 647 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| National Research | 2010-10-05 | 300 | D+1.0 | 10 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-04 | 643 | D+12.0 | 1 |