Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+10.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+4.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+20.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Impact Research | D+7.0 | 17.8 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2010-10-27 | 402 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-19 | 350 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-18 | 442 | R+20.1 | 9 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2010-09-29 | 402 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-29 | 401 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-25 | 540 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| Impact Research | 2010-09-08 | 400 | D+7.0 | 18 |