Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
R+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+9.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+10.0 | 9 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-20 | 2414 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-26 | 403 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-08 | 400 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-07 | 400 | D+4.0 | 5 |