Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+3.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+2.1 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+14.0 | 18.7 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2010-10-25 | 623 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-06 | 607 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-22 | 400 | R+14.0 | 19 |