Actual result
D+2.1
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.7 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+2.8 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | PSB Research | D+10.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2010-10-24 | 632 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-13 | 400 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-04 | 442 | R+2.8 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2010-09-14 | 605 | D+8.0 | 6 |