Actual result
R+10.8
Final polls said
R+14.4
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+11.5 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+14.4 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+3.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-19 | 2715 | R+14.4 | 4 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-26 | 401 | R+3.0 | 8 |