Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+10.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+17.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | R+2.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-10-09 | 496 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-28 | 400 | R+2.0 | 13 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-09-13 | 496 | R+11.0 | 4 |