VotePredictor
past elections

Pennsylvania House

Thomas Timothy Holden (D) vs David G. Argall (R)

Actual result
D+11.0
Final polls said
D+30.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+21.5
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1ccAdvertisingD+3.97.1
2VotePredictorD+21.510.5
3Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.D+30.019.0

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.2010-10-19442D+30.019
ccAdvertising2010-10-07442D+3.97