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Toss-up · 2010 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2010 Pennsylvania House race, Mike Kelly (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.4
Final polls said
R+11.3
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSB Research | R+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | ccAdvertising | R+13.8 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | R+7.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
ccAdvertising2010-10-072
Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics2010-09-284
PSB Research2010-09-262
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2010-09-165
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 Pennsylvania House race?
Mike Kelly (R) won, by about 11.4 points (R+11.4).
When was the 2010 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.