Actual result
R+11.4
Final polls said
R+11.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.1 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+13.8 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | R+7.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+6.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-07 | 442 | R+13.8 | 2 |
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 2010-09-28 | 634 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-26 | 401 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2010-09-16 | 418 | R+6.0 | 5 |