Actual result
R+20.2
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+15.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+10.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-18 | 300 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-11 | 304 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 416 | R+10.0 | 10 |