Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
R+9.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnMessage Inc. | R+8.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.5 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+10.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-12 | 1122 | R+10.0 | 9 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2010-10-11 | 400 | R+8.0 | 7 |