Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+12.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | D+12.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+13.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+15.8 | 11.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2010-10-27 | 456 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-26 | 400 | D+13.0 | 9 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2010-10-12 | 226 | D+26.0 | 22 |