Actual result
R+3.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+3.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+6.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | PSB Research | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-30 | 400 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-27 | 524 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-10-19 | 400 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-10 | 613 | R+11.0 | 7 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2010-10-09 | 567 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-29 | 403 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-26 | 624 | R+23.0 | 19 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-09-15 | 400 | R+2.0 | 2 |