Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FM3 Research | R+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+6.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-19 | 639 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-09 | 442 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 2010-10-04 | 400 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-28 | 579 | R+7.0 | 3 |