Actual result
R+7.7
Final polls said
R+7.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | R+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+13.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+14.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | ccAdvertising | R+15.9 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2010-10-18 | 1150 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-06 | 442 | R+15.9 | 8 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2010-09-26 | 504 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-21 | 400 | R+13.0 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2010-09-15 | 400 | R+14.0 | 6 |