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Toss-up · 2010 Senate
Arizona Senate
In the 2010 Arizona Senate race, John McCain (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+24.2
Final polls said
R+19.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+20.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | R+18.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | R+34.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-284
Public Policy Polling2010-10-236
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)2010-10-0510
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-033
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-0710
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 Arizona Senate race?
John McCain (R) won, by about 24.2 points (R+24.2).
When was the 2010 Arizona Senate election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.