Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+11.0
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+9.9 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | MRG Research | D+8.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+10.9 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+11.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Big Village | D+13.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | GQR | D+15.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | EMC Research | D+15.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | D+18.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-31 | 750 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-28 | 930 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-28 | 759 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 783 | D+9.9 | 1 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-25 | 1846 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-24 | 750 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 702 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-19 | 500 | D+18.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-14 | 750 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-09 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-09 | 1119 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-05 | 750 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 773 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2010-10-03 | 600 | D+15.0 | 6 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-03 | 1623 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-02 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-01 | 810 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-26 | 500 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-23 | 1083 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-10 | 875 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| EMC Research | 2010-09-10 | 800 | D+15.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-09 | 500 | D+9.0 | 0 |