Actual result
R+19.3
Final polls said
R+24.4
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landmark Communications | R+20.8 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+24.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+30.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | InsiderAdvantage | R+32.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-27 | 625 | R+23.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-24 | 500 | R+30.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 601 | R+24.0 | 5 |
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-19 | 3277 | R+20.8 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-06 | 500 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-09-27 | 412 | R+32.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-21 | 500 | R+16.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2010-09-16 | 632 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-14 | 625 | R+19.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-11 | 599 | R+22.0 | 3 |