Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
R+1.1
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+0.9 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | We Ask America | R+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | R+0.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Market Shares Corp. | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+2.7 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 12 | GQR | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 13 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
Polls (25)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 814 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 672 | D+2.7 | 4 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-27 | 400 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-26 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-22 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2010-10-20 | 700 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-19 | 625 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-18 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-15 | 601 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-15 | 557 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2010-10-11 | 600 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-11 | 750 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2010-10-05 | 758 | R+0.5 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-04 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-09-30 | 500 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 828 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2010-09-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-09-25 | 604 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-25 | 470 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-21 | 750 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2010-09-13 | 1379 | R+2.3 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-07 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |