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Toss-up · 2010 Senate
Illinois Senate
In the 2010 Illinois Senate race, Mark Kirk (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+1.6
Final polls said
R+1.1
12 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | R+0.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | R+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+2.7 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | GQR | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
25 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2010-10-302
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-302
YouGov2010-10-274
Impact Research2010-10-274
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-262
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 Illinois Senate race?
Mark Kirk (R) won, by about 1.6 points (R+1.6).
When was the 2010 Illinois Senate election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.