Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+18.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | EPIC-MRA | R+18.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+19.6 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+22.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 1600 | R+22.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-20 | 500 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-10-20 | 500 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2010-09-30 | 500 | R+18.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-14 | 500 | R+16.0 | 1 |