VotePredictor
past elections

Indiana Senate

Brad Ellsworth (D) vs Daniel Coats (R)

Actual result
R+14.6
Final polls said
R+19.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.6
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)R+18.03.4
2EPIC-MRAR+18.03.4
3VotePredictorR+19.65.0
4SurveyUSAR+22.07.4

Polls (5)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
SurveyUSA2010-10-231600R+22.07
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-20500R+18.03
EPIC-MRA2010-10-20500R+18.03
EPIC-MRA2010-09-30500R+18.03
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-14500R+16.01