Actual result
R+43.7
Final polls said
R+40.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+38.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+40.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+38.1 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-24 | 561 | R+40.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-11 | 619 | R+40.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-15 | 602 | R+42.0 | 2 |