← all past elections
Toss-up · 2010 Senate
Kentucky Senate
In the 2010 Kentucky Senate race, Rand Paul (R) won by about 11 points.
Actual result
R+11.5
Final polls said
R+7.9
11 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+15.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Braun Research | R+7.5 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Village | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+2.0 | 13.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
19 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2010-10-294
YouGov2010-10-273
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-271
Braun Research2010-10-264
SurveyUSA2010-10-262
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 Kentucky Senate race?
Rand Paul (R) won, by about 11.5 points (R+11.5).
When was the 2010 Kentucky Senate election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.