Actual result
R+11.5
Final polls said
R+7.9
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+12.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+9.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.9 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+15.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Braun Research | R+7.5 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Big Village | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+2.0 | 13.5 | ✗ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-29 | 1021 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 822 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Braun Research | 2010-10-26 | 800 | R+7.5 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-26 | 637 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-23 | 900 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 785 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-18 | 500 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-18 | 625 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-10-17 | 600 | D+2.0 | 13 |
| Braun Research | 2010-10-05 | 826 | R+3.9 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-29 | 500 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-22 | 611 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-09-21 | 700 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-11 | 959 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-09-09 | 679 | R+2.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-07 | 500 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-04 | 869 | EVEN | 11 |