Actual result
D+26.4
Final polls said
D+27.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+26.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+26.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | OpinionWorks | D+27.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+17.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+37.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-24 | 750 | D+18.0 | 8 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2010-10-21 | 1434 | D+37.0 | 11 |
| OpinionWorks | 2010-10-17 | 798 | D+27.0 | 1 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2010-10-13 | 816 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2010-09-24 | 730 | D+32.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 750 | D+16.0 | 10 |