Actual result
R+23.2
Final polls said
R+17.7
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+22.7 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+18.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+15.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+15.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+14.2 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 18.2 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-29 | 885 | R+18.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-28 | 1308 | R+15.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 500 | R+15.0 | 8 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-21 | 744 | R+22.7 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-10 | 750 | R+7.0 | 16 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-09 | 709 | R+15.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2010-10-04 | 600 | R+5.0 | 18 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-09-26 | 472 | R+15.0 | 8 |
| American Research Group | 2010-09-24 | 800 | R+14.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 500 | R+7.0 | 16 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-11 | 1959 | R+4.0 | 19 |