Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
D+1.5
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.7 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Washington Center for Survey Research | D+6.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+2.7 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | D+8.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | ccAdvertising | D+0.2 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Elway Research | D+15.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates | R+6.0 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 2055 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 849 | D+2.7 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 638 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-26 | 678 | EVEN | 5 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2010-10-23 | 695 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-17 | 750 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-16 | 589 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-15 | 1873 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-13 | 612 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-10 | 850 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| University of Washington Center for Survey Research | 2010-10-09 | 500 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Elway Research | 2010-10-09 | 450 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-09 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-08 | 1991 | D+0.2 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-06 | 750 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-28 | 750 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates | 2010-09-26 | 500 | R+6.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-20 | 609 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-14 | 750 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-12 | 906 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Elway Research | 2010-09-11 | 501 | D+9.0 | 4 |