Actual result
D+20.4
Final polls said
D+26.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+26.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+25.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+26.2 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Braun Research | D+28.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2011-10-30 | 576 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Braun Research | 2011-10-18 | 802 | D+28.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2011-09-24 | 569 | D+31.0 | 11 |