Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+7.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+3.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+6.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Howey Politics/DePauw University | R+7.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+9.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+12.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+12.4 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-31 | 600 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2012-10-29 | 800 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2012-10-27 | 1213 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2012-10-25 | 825 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-10-20 | 701 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 470 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-03 | 600 | R+14.0 | 11 |
| Howey Politics/DePauw University | 2012-09-21 | 800 | R+13.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 637 | R+15.0 | 12 |