Actual result
D+1.6
Final polls said
D+1.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.4 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+2.2 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mellman Group | D+7.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 836 | EVEN | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-30 | 625 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-30 | 800 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-09 | 737 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2012-09-29 | 477 | R+2.2 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 625 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-10 | 656 | D+5.0 | 3 |