Actual result
D+12.1
Final polls said
D+3.5
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+9.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Feldman Group | D+5.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+3.1 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+3.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | New England College Polling Center | D+2.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | GQR | D+2.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | R+6.0 | 18.1 | ✗ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-04 | 750 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-11-03 | 789 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-11-03 | 666 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1550 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-11-01 | 502 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-28 | 1013 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 874 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| New England College Polling Center | 2012-10-24 | 571 | EVEN | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-23 | 500 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-19 | 773 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-19 | 1013 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-18 | 1036 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-15 | 500 | R+2.0 | 14 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-10-13 | 500 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-10 | 600 | R+6.0 | 18 |
| Feldman Group | 2012-10-09 | 500 | D+5.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-10-03 | 419 | R+4.0 | 16 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2012-09-29 | 600 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-24 | 862 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-24 | 1012 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-18 | 500 | R+4.0 | 16 |
| GQR | 2012-09-17 | 600 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-16 | 463 | R+2.0 | 14 |