Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
R+6.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquette University Law School | R+7.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | R+8.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Angus Reid Global | R+5.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | R+5.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mellman Group | R+3.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | GQR | R+3.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+2.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | We Ask America | R+12.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 6.8 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-06-03 | 1570 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-06-02 | 1226 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-06-01 | 524 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-05-29 | 935 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2012-05-26 | 600 | EVEN | 7 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-05-25 | 600 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| We Ask America | 2012-05-23 | 1409 | R+12.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-05-23 | 935 | R+1.3 | 6 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-05-23 | 600 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2012-05-20 | 472 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2012-05-19 | 406 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2012-05-16 | 609 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-05-13 | 1219 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-05-12 | 851 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-05-11 | 600 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-05-09 | 500 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-04-14 | 810 | R+5.0 | 2 |