Actual result
D+3.6
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NRCC | R+5.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 9.5 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRCC | 2012-10-04 | 501 | R+5.0 | 9 |