Actual result
D+6.9
Final polls said
D+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-06-09 | 2012 | D+12.0 | 5 |