Actual result
R+15.5
Final polls said
R+12.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.9 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+20.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | R+4.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | 2012-10-14 | 400 | R+4.0 | 12 |
| Moore Information Group | 2012-10-08 | 400 | R+20.0 | 4 |