Actual result
D+20.6
Final polls said
D+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feldman Group | D+25.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+12.8 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Kimball Political Consulting | D+6.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-23 | 674 | D+11.0 | 10 |
| Feldman Group | 2012-10-13 | 502 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Kimball Political Consulting | 2012-10-12 | 422 | D+6.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-19 | 628 | D+13.0 | 8 |