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Toss-up · 2012 House
California House
In the 2012 California House race, Brad Sherman (D) won by about 21 points.
Actual result
D+20.6
Final polls said
D+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feldman Group | D+25.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+11.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Kimball Political Consulting | D+6.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2012-10-2310
Feldman Group2012-10-134
Kimball Political Consulting2012-10-1215
SurveyUSA2012-09-198
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 California House race?
Brad Sherman (D) won, by about 20.6 points (D+20.6).
When was the 2012 California House election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.