Actual result
D+5.9
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Research Partners | D+6.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates | R+17.0 | 22.9 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Research Partners | 2012-10-21 | 409 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 1364 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Arthur J. Finkelstein & Associates | 2012-10-10 | 300 | R+17.0 | 23 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2012-10-03 | 406 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-12 | 1281 | R+3.0 | 9 |