Actual result
D+20.4
Final polls said
D+13.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FM3 Research | D+16.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+10.9 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research | 2012-09-28 | 350 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-21 | 613 | D+10.0 | 10 |