Actual result
R+5.5
Final polls said
R+0.7
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | St. Pete Polls | R+0.7 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lester & Associates | EVEN | 5.5 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-16 | 770 | R+0.7 | 5 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-04 | 450 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Lester & Associates | 2012-09-16 | 401 | EVEN | 5 |