Actual result
D+27.6
Final polls said
D+4.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.5 | 23.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.5 | 24.1 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-01 | 385 | D+4.5 | 23 |