Actual result
D+25.0
Final polls said
D+4.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+15.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Kitchens Group | D+14.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+6.6 | 18.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | St. Pete Polls | D+4.5 | 20.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-16 | 612 | D+4.5 | 21 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-11 | 487 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2012-10-04 | 363 | D+3.0 | 22 |
| The Kitchens Group | 2012-09-20 | 507 | D+14.0 | 11 |