Actual result
R+8.6
Final polls said
EVEN
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | EVEN | 8.6 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-09-19 | 400 | EVEN | 9 |