Actual result
R+8.1
Final polls said
R+4.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+7.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | R+2.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-24 | 577 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| GQR | 2012-09-24 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| American Viewpoint | 2012-09-23 | 400 | R+7.0 | 1 |