Actual result
D+1.3
Final polls said
R+7.2
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+1.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+7.2 | 8.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+10.0 | 11.3 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-10-28 | 1257 | R+7.2 | 8 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-10-14 | 451 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-11 | 442 | R+10.0 | 11 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-09 | 1172 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-09-11 | 400 | R+7.0 | 8 |