Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+2.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+4.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 16.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | EVEN | 17.1 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2012-10-28 | 1303 | EVEN | 17 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2012-10-17 | 402 | D+4.0 | 13 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-10 | 1253 | R+2.0 | 19 |